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Preprint: Maximizing the probability that the 6-week lock-down in Victoria delivers a COVID-19 free Australia

Maximizing the probability that the 6-week lock-down in Victoria delivers a COVID-19 free Australia

Tony Blakely, Jason Thompson, Natalie Carvalho, Laxman Bablani, Nick Wilson and Mark StevensonMed J Aust Published online: 17 July 2020
https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/maximizing-probability-6-week-lock-down-victoria-delivers-covid-19-free-australia
This article has now been accepted for publication and has undergone full peer review but has not completed the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process; further changes may be made before final publication. The current revised version is available as a PDF here and is online here (4 September 2020).
This is a preprint version of an article submitted for publication in the Medical Journal of Australia. Changes may be made before final publication. Click here for the PDF version. Suggested citation: Blakely T, Thompson J, Carvalho N, Bablani L, Wilson N, Stevenson M. Maximizing the probability that the 6-week lock-down in Victoria delivers a COVID-19 free Australia. Med J Aust 2020; https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/maximizing-probability-6-week-lock-down-victoria-delivers-covid-19-free-australia [Preprint, 17 July 2020].
Victoria is the unlucky state in a lucky country. Most other states and territories, except for NSW, have achieved elimination of community transmission of the pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2 (28 or more days of no locally acquired cases where the source is unknown).
The situation in NSW is mixed and precarious. On the one hand, NSW has a current outbreak of 40 cases (as of 16 July) linked to the Crossroads Hotel outbreak in Casula. On the other hand, until 16 July there had only been three locally acquired cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection with no known source in the preceding 28 days suggesting NSW was on the cusp of elimination 1 – but three cases have been reported on 16 July with no obvious link to the current outbreak.2 If NSW successfully contains this outbreak, it may resume its prior trajectory towards the elimination of local transmission, leaving Victoria isolated as the only state with community transmission.
It seems highly unlikely that states and territories that have eliminated local transmission will relinquish their status by freely opening borders and engaging with Victoria (and NSW if community transmission remains). Australia going forward as two separate systems (six or seven states and territories having eliminated the virus, one or two not) is a significant concern. Both the Victorian economy (comprising 23.7% of Australia’s economy 3) and the wider Australian economy will be adversely impacted for a long period due to the public health measures necessary to prevent and control recurrent outbreaks arising from resurgent community transmission.
There are three general strategic policy responses to the challenge of COVID-19: elimination, suppression, and mitigation (or herd immunity). No response is free of economic, social and health harms – rather, it is about minimising harm.4 Society has largely rejected a mitigation response due to the high morbidity and mortality inherent (e.g. if 60% of the population were infected the number of deaths may exceed 100,000 under current case fatality rates 5). We argue that explicitly pushing towards a strategy of elimination across all of Australia is optimal given where we are at and what we know.

Elimination strategy

We know from New Zealand (NZ; population 5.0 million)6 and Taiwan (23.8 million)7 that elimination of community transmission is achievable in island jurisdictions, both having no reported community transmission for over two months as of 10 July.8 The advantage of elimination is that despite international border closures or strict quarantine, citizens can go about life with a near-normal functioning of their society and economy.
Elimination has challenges. First, there is the extra effort to achieve it – and the fact that aiming to achieve elimination does not guarantee success. Second, having achieved elimination, there would be the constant risk of the virus re-entering due to quarantine breaches. This is evident from the two quarantine hotels in Melbourne that leaked cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, if we learn from experience, there is no reason why the quarantine of arrivals to a country cannot be made near-perfectly secure with the appropriate processes and resources.
How sustainable a COVID-19 free nation with tight border controls is in the very long term is unclear, especially when international tourism begins to be resurrected in the rest of the world. If an effective vaccine does not arrive in the next year or so, then at some point a COVID-19 free country may choose to pivot away from maintaining elimination towards suppression or mitigation. This could involve the easing of border restrictions and the return of disease spread but where the mortality and morbidity burden is substantially lessened through improved treatments and social mechanisms to protect the elderly and vulnerable (e.g. good ring-fencing of rest-homes). The point now, though, is that living in a state or country that has achieved elimination is a far better option than suppression in the short- to medium-term, compared to the high likelihood of recurrent outbreaks precipitating recurrent lock-downs with attendant social and economic disruption. For example, NZ used a more stringent lock-down that Australia in March to April 2020 (Supplementary Figure 1 - available in PDF), rapidly achieved elimination, and its economy appears to have bounced back more strongly than Australia’s, at least on the measure of payroll job estimates (Supplementary Figure 2 - available in PDF). So too, COVID-19 free Australian states and territories (e.g., Queensland) are benefiting economically, enabling the re-opening of business activity and hosting of national sporting teams and fixtures such as the AFL.

Is elimination achievable with a six-week lock-down?

Lock-downs are effective for pandemic control.9,10 Our case for an explicit elimination strategy in Victoria, now, is that given the State is in lock-down for six-weeks there is only a marginal cost of ‘going hard’ with a rigorous public health response that increases the probability of achieving elimination. But is elimination achievable within six-weeks?
We examined four policy scenarios using an agent-based model, a type of micro-simulation of individuals. The model accurately reflects the prior experience of both NZ and Australia 11, and in this paper, we have adapted it to Victoria (including the case counts up to 14 July) (see Appendix for details - available in PDF). The four policy approaches were:
  1. Standard, reflecting the first Australian lock-down (calibrated in ), with key parameters including 85% of people observing physical distancing; of those observing physical distancing, they do so 85% of the time; 30% of adult workers are essential workers; 93% of people asked to isolate doing so; 20% uptake of COVID-Safe App; but no closure of schools and no mask-wearing.
  2. Standard plus masks at 50%, above plus 50% of people wearing masks when in crowded indoor environments.
  3. Stringent with masks at 50%, schools closed and essential workers restricted to 20% of workers, otherwise as above.
  4. Stringent with masks at 90%, above with mask use increased to 90%.
Figure 1 (available in PDF) shows the percentage likelihood of elimination in Victoria, defined as the date of clearance of infection by the last case. The observable moment of 28 days without a locally acquired case with no known contact follows by about another two weeks.
Under the ‘Standard‘ policy approach, there is no chance that all infected people will have cleared their SARS-CoV-2 infection by 19 August (six-weeks after lock-down started). The probabilities for the other three policy approaches are 5% for ‘Standard plus masks at 50%’; slightly more at about 7% for ‘Stringent with masks at 50%’; and nearly 50% for ‘Stringent plus masks at 90%’. As an important aside, as we have updated these model runs in the week since lockdown began, the curves have been shifting to the right due to the ongoing high numbers of daily cases. If Victoria gets on top of the current outbreak, these probabilities may improve, and the curves shift to the left – but also vice versa. We will update these models on a regular basis.
Undertaking simulation modelling of SARS-CoV-2 policy options is challenging and the uncertainties are still large. Nevertheless, our results lend weight to the proposition that elimination is achievable, and that mandatory wearing of masks can greatly assist its chances.

A ten-point plan to maximize the chance of elimination in Victoria

Box 1 (available in PDF) gives enhancements to the stay-at-home orders used in the first lock-down, that should see an increased probability of elimination being achieved. The first and critical point is leadership. Victoria’s Premier Daniel Andrews (and indeed all State and Territory Premiers) should explicitly declare ‘elimination’ as the goal. This should be accompanied by increased transparency and target-setting including the appointment of an expert advisory group in order to increase trust in the process. An explicit goal will more likely avert a public clamouring for premature opening up again as case-numbers fall and will recognise that these investments will have greater health and economic payoffs in the future.
Since the second lock-down in Victoria was announced (Tuesday 7 July), progress with aspects of this ten-point plan has already been made with the closure of schools (other than for year 11 and 12, and special needs students), encouragement to wear masks in indoor environments (though we argue this needs to be mandatory), and commitments to improve contact tracing capacity.

Conclusion

We argue that Melbourne and Victoria should not waste the opportunity this lock-down presents. By learning from the lessons on social and preventive measures to lower SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility,9,10,12,13 and specifically the lessons from NZ,4 Taiwan and six of the eight Australia States and Territories that have achieved elimination, Victoria can increase its chances of also eliminating community transmission.
There is the risk of failure – we cannot guarantee that our ten-point plan will achieve elimination, we cannot guarantee high compliance in measures by the Victoria population if a more stringent lock-down was imposed, and if the outbreak in NSW restarts community transmission then both NSW and Victoria will need to have elimination strategies for Australia to eliminate. But we argue that it would be a bigger failure to not enhance the probability of elimination by augmenting the current lock-down now. Our work and those of others who have independently considered the alternatives consistently demonstrates that elimination is possible, and if achieved optimal for health and long-term for the economy.4,14-16
Finally, we can only make estimates as to what the future holds. If a timely vaccine does not arrive, or treatments greatly improve, then for Australia to fully reintegrate with the rest of the world there may be a need to pivot to suppression and then mitigation. But we argue this is a decision better reserved for the future as the disease evolves and our knowledge improves; an Australia with no community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the near-term will be better and stronger for it.

References

  1. https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/default.aspx.
  2. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-16/nsw-coronavirus-three-mystery-cases-concern-authorities/12460650.
  3. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2018-19. In: Australian Bureau of Statistics, editor. Canberra; 2019.
  4. Blakely T, Bablani L, Carvalho N, et al. Integrated quantification of the health and economic impacts of differing strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Under review.
  5. Blakely T, Wilson N. The maths and ethics of minimising COVID-19 deaths. In: University of Melbourne, editor. Pursuit. Melbourne: University of Melbourne,; 2020.
  6. Baker M, Kvalsvig A, Verrall A. New Zealand’s COVID-19 elimination strategy. Medical Journal of Australia 2020; Preprint.
  7. United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. World Population Prospects 2019: Data Booklet. New York: United Nations, 2020.
  8. https://covid19.mohw.gov.tw/EN/mp-206.html, https://www.cdc.gov.tw/en/Disease/SubIndex/, https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus.
  9. Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, et al. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature 2020.
  10. Hsiang S, Allen D, Annan-Phan S, et al. The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature 2020.
  11. Thompson J, McClure R, Blakely T, et al. Modelling the estimated likelihood of eliminating the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Australia and New Zealand under public health policy settings: an agent-based-SEIR approach. (SSRN 3588074 2020; https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3588074). under review 2020.
  12. Bi Q, Wu Y, Mei S, et al. Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2020.
  13. Chu DK, Akl EA, Duda S, et al. Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet 2020; 395(10242): 1973-87.
  14. Daly J. COVID-19. The endgame and how to get there. Melbourne, Australia: The Grattan Institute, 2020.
  15. Group of Eight A. COVID-19 Roadmap to Recovery: A Report for the Nation, 2020.
  16. Chang S, Harding N, Zachreson C, Cliff O, Prokopenko M. Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. arXiv 2020: arXiv:2003.10218v1 [q-bio.PE].
  17. Ministry of Health. Aotearoa/New Zealand’s COVID-19 elimination strategy: an overview. Wellington, NZ: Ministry of Health,, 2020.
  18. Li X, Xu W, Dozier M, et al. The role of children in transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A rapid review. J Glob Health 2020; 10(1): 011101.
  19. https://covid19.govt.nz/.
  20. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker.
  21. Hale T, Hale AJ, Kira B, et al. Global Assessment of the Relationship between Government Response Measures and COVID-19 Deaths. 2020.
  22. https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6160.0.55.001.
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EDIT: I cannot keep up with all the comments. Anyone who wants to have a reasonable discussion can message me privately. sidipi shares most of my views towards this topic, feel free to PM him too. Some content can be found within comment section.
Excluded SDK related issues, basic Operation Wildfire and Majors' related information, some other unimportant stuff. I also kept some super-minor or esthetic-related info, that I see potential to be developed upon gameplay-related aspects in the future. Everything that may impact the overall gameplay experience is added.
SORRY FOR FORMATTING AND NO SECONDARY BULLET POINTS
ASCENDING (MAPS AT THE BOTTOM)
– Added support for in-game broadcast of Regional Minor Championships. – Upgraded to newer version of libSDL. (LINUX) – Improved game performance during the end of match scoreboard. (LINUX) – Sound options now distinguish between headphones vs two-speakers options. (LINUX) – Added official game servers in India. – Reduced volume falloff distance for USP-S. – Removed high frequencies from Killer Replay tape sound. – Adjusted falloff curve of ricochet and impact sounds. – Minor mix tweaks. – Fixed a bug where client could sometimes get stuck in Killer Replay with a black screen. – Fixed a bug where victim weapons could sometimes be invisible in Killer Replay. – Player’s own footstep sounds are now correctly mixed as third-person footsteps during Killer Replay. – Voice communications are now not faded out before and after Killer Replay. – Fixed a regression where small mouse movements could be ignored. (LINUX) – Fixed certain video options not getting applied immediately when user changed them during a match. – Fixed minor shadow errors on viewmodels. – Fixed mouse handling in community server dialog. (LINUX) – Added a convar cl_crosshair_sniper_width to allow increasing width of sniper crosshair lines on high dpi monitors or multimonitor setups. – Fixed some looping sounds not stopping after Killer Replay. – Bomb plant and defuse are excluded from Low-Light playback. – Players can no longer vote-kick a bot. – An HE grenade not owned by any connected player will no longer result in kicking the victim for too many suicides. – Fixed displays to set on the correct monitor in multi-monitor setups. (LINUX) – Fixed a bug in mouse handling when moving mouse toward the top-left. (LINUX) – Explosive damage and damage from flying grenade impacts will now always use armor penetration formulas when the victim wears armor (thanks to the video uploaded by Andrew PhoenixFight3r). – Added convar mp_drop_knife_enable (defaults to ‘0’) that allows players on community servers to drop their knives. – Fixed particle rain not following the “in eye” player if you were spectating someone. – Detail sprites (like grass) have been improved so many more can be rendered for much cheaper. — The leader’s glow in Arms Race no longer shows through walls. — M4A1-Silenced has been added to the rifle section of available Arms Race weapons. — Seven community maps available in Competitive Matchmaking as well as other game modes via the Operation Wildfire map group — Nuke has returned (available in Matchmaking included in the Operation Wildfire map group) – Gemini missions’ previous rating data on in-game scoreboard will now reliably refresh for the players when they replay Gemini missions. – Improved bullet accuracy tracking algorithm to correctly account for the last kill of the match. – Improved headshot tracking algorithm for shotguns to record a headshot if any of the pellets in the blast hit victim’s head. – Tuned Blitz Mission schedule to better fit peak CS:GO users worldwide. – Fixed a ladder position interpolation bug that would cause players to teleport back to the top of ladders they fell off of – Fixed a rare player collision bug that would deal extreme falling damage to players stuck between nearly vertical level or prop geometry – Fixed server crash when players were moving around func_tracktrains entities (fixes community server crashes when running mods Zombie Escape, Minigames, etc). – Fixed a regression in competitive timeouts voting rules. – User accounts will also receive a temporary cooldown when their Game Server Login Token gets banned. – Fixed not being able to select the 5th slot when you have a bomb and medi-shot equipped. – Fixed not being able to cycle through items in the 5th slot if you had more than 1. – Fixed inventory UI hiding when preforming actions on items (like applying stickers) while in the lobby. – Fixed lobby displaying incorrect player data when searching solo and using the inventory. – Fixed sticker model panel overlapping quit lobby dialog and other dialogs. – Fixed a case where Gemini campaign mission could not get checked off in the campaign journal even when the mission was active for the player at the time of completion. – Added engine support for up to 4096 model precache table entries. – cl_timeout setting is now capped at 30 seconds. – Fixed weapon_fire event for the Medi-Shot having the incorrect “weapon” sent. – Added missing tagrenade_detonate event. – Fixed a crash that was occurring on Coast and some other maps. – Fix for a func_tracktrain that could pass through players when they were overlapping. – Bots can now fire the revolver. – Fixed a rare animation bug that would cause bot skeletons to become misaligned in some cases if they spawned with AI disabled. – Updated phong shader to apply envmap albedo tint that matches phong albedo tint and intensity values. – r_drawclipbrushes 3 now shows grenadeclip brushes. – “ignoremsg” console command behavior should now match the UI feedback it gives. – Fixed a Guardian mission crash. – Fixed main menu being shifted to the left. – Fixed model panel not clearing when exiting inventory while in the pause menu. – Fixed past tournaments having incorrect scroll state. – Wildfire campaign missions have a new HUD element to display your mission objectives and progress. – This update includes a previously released patch for gameservers to deny setinfo calls for keys that weren’t configured at client connection time. – Added a convar sv_vote_count_spectator_votes that can be set to zero while enabling sv_vote_allow_spectators to initiate votes without casting an initial YES vote. – Fixed a bug where the map overview would move a dead player’s icon to the position of their spectator camera, showing a live player’s position (Thanks jubiii!) – Fixed a frequent client crash when loading a map with the game alt-tabbed. – Damage indicators now display relative to the correct player when watching GOTV/replay using caster camera control. – Changed default value for cvar sv_quota_stringcmdspersecond=16 to make community servers that don’t actively configure this setting run with a more conservative command rate limit. – Adjusted Spectator Graphs: Replaced HSP and economy stats with Enemies Flashed and Utility Damage. – Added main menu UI to register for a new beta. – In-game blog is now displayed using the language of game UI when possible. – Fixed rounding errors in timing for molotovs/incendiary grenades. They now deal exactly 40 DPS regardless of server tickrate. – Fixed community server crash relating to graphs and games that go into overtime. – Equip armor sounds are now slightly different for T and CT – Added official game servers in Chile. – CS:GO VAC Bans and CS:GO Game Bans will be applied to all accounts that share the same phone number – Increased radius of c4 disarm sound – Fixed some cases where alt-tabbing away and back to the game would cause incorrect sounds to play – Blood decals on player models will now reliably display for players and spectators in-game. – Buy menu calculation of the Accurate Range of weapons will now show same values as obtained with cl_weapon_debug_show_accuracy and cl_weapon_debug_print_accuracy, gameplay has not changed. – Steam controller now properly adjusts when scoped respecting zoom_sensitivity_ratio_joystick value. – Major championship trophy animation will now show more rows of etched names when inspected. – Accounts that get a global cooldown for GSLT violation will no longer make their party members from previous competitive matches lose match wins earned together. – OS X and Linux now use 64-bit game clients. This fixes numerous long standing random crashes specific to those platforms. (OSX, LINUX) – Improved spectating cameras for de_cache. – Improved spectating cameras for de_nuke. – Added convars cl_spec_use_tournament_content_standards and sv_spec_use_tournament_content_standards that allow the client and/or server to prefer official pro player names when available and omit weapon tags for spectators. – Default spec_freeze_time reduced from 5.0 to 3.0. – Added fade and blur to deathcam (when mp_forcecamera 1). – Fade and blur in deathcam are more aggressive when killed with a headshot (when mp_forcecamera 1). – Added more accurate collision model for bombsite models used in Mirage, Inferno, Cache. – Added more accurate collision model for barrels used in Overpass B site. – Added the concommand spec_player_by_accountid that switches observer target to the player with SteamID64 passed as argument. – Added the convar spec_lock_to_accountid which, when set, will lock the observer target to the specified SteamID64 player. The lock can be set regardless of whether or not the player is currently connected. – Made it so “Fullscreen” sets an exclusive fullscreen mode and “Windowed Fullscreen” sets a non-exclusive fullscreen mode. Exclusive fullscreen mode allows for potentially higher performance while making switching back to the desktop slower. (OSX, LINUX) – Replaced the penalty for the suicide or disconnection of a player. Instead of the elimination of round-end income, a living enemy player now receives compensation equal to the missed kill reward opportunity. – On Valve official servers, the current map will be excluded from the vote options at the end of a match. – Modified behavior of mp_endmatch_votenextmap_keepcurrent (default 1). When set to 0, the current map will be excluded from the end of match map vote panel. – Full player hitboxes are now used by “cl_weapon_debug_show_accuracy 2” so that the circle appears closer to the target in 3D space. – Fixed appearance of fonts in the community browser and console. (MAC) – Fixed some bugs with setting fullscreen resolution. (MAC) – Set all Mac players to use Raw Mouse Input by default since this is a better experience for most players. Players can manually revert to not using raw mouse input if that is what they prefer. (MAC) – In classic game modes any money earned by a player mid-round will no longer be available for spending during the same round (i.e., SMG purchases are no longer possible during competitive pistol rounds). – Suicide or disconnect compensation will no longer be awarded in warmup or during freezetime period. – When controlling the bot and surviving round running out of time, the controlling player is now eligible to receive end of round money. – Removed a legacy 2.5 seconds spawn grace period for players who reconnect to the round after freezetime is over. – Increased upper limit on possible mp_halftime_duration values to 5 minutes. – Added server convar sv_spec_post_death_additional_time that allows adding a delay for spectators between the death of a spec target and the switch to a new target. – The convar sv_alltalk has been replaced with sv_talk_enemy_dead and sv_talk_enemy_living. – Classic Casual now defaults to team-restrict communication for living players. – New sound cue for shooting with low ammo. – Upgraded sound fidelity, reduced distortion for Mag7, M249, Negev. – New smoke sound to reduce interference with bomb defuse sound. – New sound for text chat messages in party lobby. – CS:GO accounts will be Prime if they have verified their phone number and achieved at least Lieutenant Rank 21 or have earned a Service Medal. – Prime accounts can now select to search only for other prime accounts in competitive matchmaking. – When matchmaking with a party lobby, all party members must be Prime to have the Prime-only option available. – Added video option (default on) for frame rate smoothing. Frame rate smoothing significantly reduces hitching and stuttering, but at the expense of reducing overall frame rate. (MAC) – Significantly reduced input latency. (MAC) – Added audio option “Play Audio When Game in Background” to match behavior on Windows and Linux. (MAC) – Lowered volume level of first-person nearly empty clip sound to match its volume level falloff in the environment. – Fixed a regression in Nova and Sawed Off reloading sounds. – Added convar cl_spec_swapplayersides to flip display of competitive HUD to match teams seating on stage. – Spectator UI – Player panel now tints yellow or blue based on the team of the person you are spectating. – Added sounds for players joining and leaving party lobbies. – Upgraded sound fidelity for Nova, Sawed Off, and XM1014 shotguns. — Fixed a bug where an in-hand fire sound would persist when a player was killed while holding a primed Molotov. — Upgraded sound fidelity for Molotov priming sound. — Reduced volume of in-hand fire sound for a primed Molotov – Community GOTV relays will now reliably sign in to Steam and CS:GO backend when launched straight with +tv_advertise_watchable 1 +tv_relay addr:port. – GOTV relays will now correctly communicate their statistics about connected proxies and clients upstream and downstream. – Added convars commonly used in GOTV relay chains to common dictionary encoding. – Added support for Cologne 2016 game authentication codes to allow third-party websites and applications to manage your Cologne 2016 Pick’Em and Fantasy Games without running the actual game client. – Added new option “Fetch Event Data” to logic_eventlistener entity. If set, a new “event_data” field will be created in the eventlistener’s ScriptScope containing information about the event. – Resurrected the convar mp_spec_swapplayersides. – Fixed maps that use Squirrel scripting, including the Weapons Course map. (MAC, LINUX) – Fixed a Linux memory leak. (MAC, LINUX) – Increased fidelity for Bizon, Mac10 and UMP45 weapons. – Unique reload and draw sounds for Bizon, Mac10 and UMP45 weapons. – New sound for C4 disarm start and disarm finish, more in line with C4 plant sounds. – New sound for empty magazine impacting with ground. – Lowered volume of low ammo sound and added unique sound. – Lowered volume of smoke grenade tail. – Fixed bug where demoui, console, and other controls wouldn’t show an ‘X’ to close the window. (MAX, LINUX) – Fixed a server crash (Thanks, Gamemann, for the report) – Fixed bug where non-Latin characters could not be stored in config files. – Updated the autobuy and rebuy scripts to support 2x flashbangs and reordered the purchasing order (in case of insufficient funds.) – Added tracers to alt fire on Aug, Sg, Glock, and Famas. – Set all shotguns except XM to semi-auto. – AWP and SSG08 now also drop magazines – Networked viewangle precision to other players is now lossless. – Increased fidelity of firing sounds for P90, MP7 and MP9 – Added unique reload and draw sounds for P90, MP7 and MP9 – Slightly reduced volume of firing for recently changed weapon sounds – Made headphones the default sound option instead of two-speaker. (If playing with headphones or sound cards with virtual 5.1/7.1 enabled, make sure 5.1 is selected in the CSGO audio settings menu instead.) – Radar is no longer hidden when win panel comes up. – Shipping changes to how some UI elements are implemented in preparation for a move to Panorama UI. This should have no noticeable change in UI functionality, but is the first step in moving to the new system. – Added defusekit player state to game state integration support. – cl_weapon_debug_print_accuracy 2 is now a tab delimited formatted output of information. – Fix a bug that rarely caused a player to be on the wrong team in competitive mode. – Fix a bug that allowed players to spawn in unexpected (invalid) locations on various maps. – Added logic to prevent airstalling (where a player appears to float in midair by disrupting their network stream). – Added sv_clamp_unsafe_velocities convar (default: 1) that community servers can disable to support surfing, etc. – Misc security improvements. – Modified report and commend GC logic to clearly signal failure in the case of spoofed reports. – Increased fidelity of firing sounds for P250, Five-Seven, Tec-9, CZ75-Auto, and Dual Berettas. – Added unique reload and distant sounds for P250, Five-Seven, Tec-9, and Dual Berettas. – New accuracy recovery method and new recovery rates for the M4A1-S, M4A4, and AK-47 – Weapon recoil now resets on reload – Players should no longer accidentally run into server DOS protections. – Increased fidelity and reduced distortion for fire sounds of the Glock, HKP2000, USP-S and Deagle. – Unique distant, reload and draw sounds for Glock, HKP2000, USP-S and Deagle – Fix a bug where some users would have a bad mem_level set which would cause poor performance. (LINUX) – Player xray glow now dims when player is not making any audible sound. Several convars are available to tweak this behavior; “find spec_glow” for a list. – Added official game servers in Peru. – Lag compensation system will now reliably restore pose parameters responsible for animation layering which makes server-side hitboxes for lag compensated players better match client-side rendered models. (Thanks, Spurks) – Fixed a bug where player body pitch could improperly rotate the entire player entity inside lag compensation processing. – Latest version of de_cache, minor bug fixes. – Increased fidelity and reduced distortion for fire sounds for AWP, SSG 08, G3SG1 and SCAR-20. – Added unique reload, distant and draw sounds for SSG 08, G3SG1 and SCAR-20. – Gunshot tails for AWP, SSG 08, G3SG1 and SCAR-20 no longer remain at the position they were fired, and instead more accurately spread over the environment. – The first-person camera of players, spectators, and demo-viewers is no longer allowed to rise higher than their third-person head. This should prevent first-person players from being able to see from perspectives where their third-person head is not also exposed. – When a player’s first-person camera is adjusted, bullets fired from both their client and server-side locations are also adjusted to emit from the corrected position. – If for any reason the third-person player animation lowers a player’s head beneath the client’s first-person camera, the client’s first-person camera is lowered to stay at or under the height of their third-person head. This means that the third-person motion of the player is now represented more accurately from the first-person perspective. – Third-person landing recovery animations are now weighted based on altitude traversed and duration in-air. Players landing from small jumps or falling from lesser heights will play more subtle landing animations. – The anti-crouch-spam system has been changed to use degrading speed, instead of logging keypress-count. As before, the more often players crouch, the slower they will rise or lower. But this should now prevent bugs where players would instantly stand, or lose their crouch-spam penalty by moving a tiny amount. If players crouch even more, eventually they will just stay standing up. – First-person and third-person crouch speed is now more closely related. The third-person player lowers more quickly to match the first-person representation. – Players landing in crouch positions play a more subtle landing animation that raises their third-person head less noticeably. – Molotovs are no longer extinguished by smokes that are significantly below them, so now it is possible to smoke inside hut on Nuke and throw a molotov on top of hut, or smoke under palace balcony on Mirage and throw a molotov on balcony floor. – Molotovs are no longer extinguished by smokes that are above the fire height. – Molotovs no longer spread under closed doors. – Smoke grenades no longer get stuck in player clips when they extinguish flames upon bouncing off a wall. – Fixed a bug where players could double crouch jump higher than designed height. – Fixed a bug where players would not be able to uncrouch in the air. – Flying smoke grenades no longer have a half-second restriction after a bounce before subsequent bounce can extinguish a molotov. – Smoke grenades bouncing off a surface not directly on fire will not extinguish a molotov. – Smoke grenades can no longer stick under a hot surface to extinguish a molotov. – Smoke can still extinguish fires in a smoke volume even if the emitting smoke grenade rests behind an obstacle. – Allowing wider range for network channel bandwidth rate setting representing allowed game traffic to client: Increased default rate to 196608 which will accommodate users with internet connections of 1.5 Mbps or better. — Players can increase their rate setting up to 786432 to represent 6 Mbps surge bandwidth allowed, but must be aware that requesting high surge bandwidth may cause packet loss if their ISP or network hardware drops packets at a high surge rate. – Added new convar sv_jump_impulse which controls initial upward speed of jumps. – Fixed watch streams tab to correctly show top twitch.tv CS:GO streams. – Increased fidelity and reduced distortion in fire sounds for Famas, Galil, Aug, SG553, M4A4, M4A1-S, unsilenced M4A1-S, and AK47. – Added unique distant, draw, and reload sounds for Famas, Galil, Aug, SG553, M4A4, M4A1-S, and unsilenced M4A1-S. – Replaced accuracy model for shots taken while in the air – Fixed bug where M4A1-S was audible at long range. – Lowered volume of weapon sounds. – Made minor volume mix adjustments. – Improved reliability of smoke grenades popping to extinguish fire when bouncing smoke grenade on displacement surfaces. – Fixed respawn waves not working outside of Guardian and Strike missions. – Added steam protocol support for connect and playcast commands: steam://rungame/730/76561202255233023/+connect%20127.0.0.1:27015; steam://rungame/730/76561202255233023/+playcast%20%22http://cdn.net/match/id%22 – Gameplay convars for community servers & workshop maps: — weapon_air_spread_scale (default 1): Games that focus on air combat can set this to a lower value to improve weapon accuracy for players in the air. — sv_enablebunnyhopping (default 0): Disables the air-velocity clamping to 110% of maximum running speed. — sv_autobunnyhopping (default 0): Holding +jump causes players to automatically re-jump at the exact landing tick. – Added cl_drawhud_force_radar to render radar with cl_draw_only_deathnotices. – Doors are always networked to prevent peeks with high lag revealing players behind the door. – Sniper scopes are much more responsive to your actual accuracy; the blur is driven by your current inaccuracy. — NOTE: There are no gameplay behavior changes in scoped accuracy; actual accuracy and timing are unaffected. The display now more-correctly represents your current inaccuracy. – Crosshair blur fidelity improved. – New console variable cl_crosshair_sniper_show_normal_inaccuracy (default 0) includes standing inaccuracy and spread in your sniper crosshair blur. – Added a 0.4 second cooldown to the crouch button to reduce the visual noise from spamming crouch in the air. — This is tunable via the convar sv_timebetweenducks. – Fixed a case where a player’s crouch state did not match the state of the +duck key. The most noticeable case was when taking over a bot that was crouching. – Adjusted bomb plant animation when planting the bomb while already crouched. – Fixed a bug where molotovs/incendiary grenades did not generate flames when they exploded on the corner of a ledge. – Reduced viewmodel rotational effect when pointing a weapon at near-vertical angles – A revised version of de_inferno is available in the Reserves Map group. Thanks to the CS:GO community for their continuing feedback. – Fixed a regression where players did not fade to black after death with mp_forcecamera 1. – Added ability to accept friend requests from CS:GO main menu and to send friend requests from match scoreboard. – Fixed a case where player would sometimes not be placed in competitive matchmaking queue correctly on the very first search after starting up CS:GO which required stopping search and searching again. (Thanks “Trip” for helping with diagnosing the issue) – Fixed some instances where incorrect or missing reverb was being applied to sounds. – Latency to official datacenters is now always measured using Steam Datagram Relay. – A temporary griefing conviction assigned by Overwatch will now be elevated to a permanent conviction if the suspect had a previous temporary griefing conviction. – In-game friends requests will show no more than 4 friend requests, sorted by Steam profile level. – Fixed a case when users could fail to reconnect to a competitive match after restarting their game while experiencing issues logging in to Steam. – Max Acceptable Matchmaking Ping setting can now be set as low as 25 ms — If there are official servers satisfying your ping setting then official matchmaking will always put you in a match hosted on those servers. — If there are no official servers near you satisfying your ping setting then official matchmaking will put you in a match hosted on the next nearest official server, latency to which may exceed your ping setting. In this case, the player will also see the best possible matchmaking ping while searching, along with an indicator if datacenters are offline for maintenance in their region. – Long clan tags containing Unicode characters in the end will now correctly truncate without showing a corrupt last character. – Sound effects emitted by killed player now correctly spatialize in killer replay. – Reduced reverb on weapons and footsteps to fix misleading sound positioning. – Added lag compensation for teammates when playing with “teammates are enemies” game rules. – Fixed a vgui bug where an additional character after selection was always copied to clipboard (thanks Justin) – Fixed a bug where the game would sometimes fail to start with the message “Only one instance of the game can be running at one time” (OSX) – Fixed an interaction between defuse kits and water that would sometimes cause a defuse kit to be unable to be picked up. – Fixed miscellaneous vulnerabilities (thanks GeekPwn). – Players who get kicked from a lobby cannot rejoin for three minutes. – Fixed a bug where some potted plants were playing incorrect collision sounds. – Fixed a bug where some UI sounds would incorrectly spatialize immediately after player death. – Players can now join lobbies created by members of their Steam Groups. For details, visit the Steam Group Lobby FAQ – Added the Steam Groups tab in the Friend Lister on the Main Menu. – By default, if you click Play With Friends and are displaying the Tag of one of your Steam Groups, your lobby will be broadcast to (and joinable by) members of that Steam Group. You can adjust your default lobby settings in the Game Settings menu. – Looking for players from your region or who share a common interest? You can search for new Steam Groups to join, view a friends’ groups by visiting their Steam Community Profile, or create a group of your own! – Fixed a problem equipping music kits, sprays and flair items. – Fixed friends list not scrolling correctly when only one page of friends is visible. – Fixed a crash encountered while minimizing the game while in full screen mode. – Fixed an issue where some UI sounds would play very quietly when the player is dead. – Fixed ragdolls sometimes having incorrect gloves after killer replay. – Removed barrels from Dust2 radar.
MAPS:
MIRAGE
— Removed wall-lamps that blocked visibility from ticketbooth to mid in bombsite A — Removed shelf inside market near bombsite B (thanks TheWhaleMan!) — Added a plywood board to bomb-crate in bombsite A to make throwing grenades under scaffolding more consistent — Fixed pixelwalk in CT spawn — Fixed some small seethrough gaps in bombsite A — Fixed small seethrough gap from Short to Mid — Fixed grenadecollision on van in bombsite B — Van now plays proper surface sounds when walking on it — Stairs in palace and B apartments will now play correct surface sounds — Fixed potential rendering error on wall hole model used in CT sniper position — Fixed various bugs (Thanks csgobugtracker.com contributors!)
COBBLESTONE
— Added stairs up to B site platform, giving CTs additional options for defending the site — Updated trees with more accurate collision model — Fixed rendering error on wall hole model used near bombsite A — Fixed various bugs (Thanks csgobugtracker.com contributors!) — Improved visibility from underpass to A site
INFERNO
— Added a second set of steps up on A site — Made wallbangs through windows near A site balcony, A site hut/quad and T apartments towards bridge more consistent — Pipes in underpass can now be shot through — Pushed back stairs to graveyard to create more room for defending player — Made shader for fountain water cheaper to render on low settings — Prevent name-peeking through gap between pillar and wall in hut/quad — Fixed various graphical and movement bugs — Moved back grenade-clip in open door on A site
CACHE
— Fixed DM spawns — Improved radar polish — Improved visual polish — Added physics to fence in Sun room — Fixed numerous “pixel walks” — Fixed one-way wallbang at mid (thanks TomCS!) — Fixed fencing at T-spawn being non-solid (thanks JoshOnTwitch!) — Fixed various minor bugs — Fixed one-way texture at Quad boxes — Improved visibility of vents — Fixed pixelwalk at B fences — Improved matching of foot-step sounds and ground materials across the map — Visibility improvements based on color-blind player feedback — Texture improvements — New vent models — Added subtle markers for grenade throws (thanks James Bardolph) — Added plant-zone decals to Bombsite B — Added graphic for “Sun-room” (thanks Thurnip) — Fixed fade distance on crate in checkers — Fixed weapons being irretrievable under vent — Fixed all known bomb-stuck spots — Fixed an exploit involving flashbangs from mid into checkers — Fixed pixelwalks at mid, T-Spawn, A main, A site — Improved .nav mesh (thanks p_NM) — Minor bug fixes
NUKE
— Fixed pixel walking on rafters — Fixed a number of spots where C4 could be dropped and not retrieved — Fixed wallbanging values on trophy room wall — Rooftop to Silo jump distance increased slightly — Players can no longer defuse the bomb on A site from under the floor on B site — Flashbangs now correctly blind players behind toolsblocklight brushes – Open vents no longer shield players from flashbangs – Added grenadeclips – Improved bot navigation – Removed ladder cage from T rooftop – Fixed vcollide on door frames – Fixed a number of spots where C4 could get lost – Fixed C4 and grenades falling through B floor frame – Fixed scissor gates blocking flashbangs – Fixed a few pixelwalks – Improved grenade clips on door frames. – Improved bot navigation. — Improved accuracy of grenade clips on metal containers — Clip brushes now play the correct material type footstep sound — Performance optimizations — Removed crate stack from CT side — Removed railings outside HUT — Removed railings at top of Heaven ladder — Lowered ambient soundscape volumes — Door opening and closing predictability fixed — Improved .nav mesh (thanks Bez) — Fixed +use interaction through tool or clip brushes — Fixed double doors being blocked by their sibling door being blocked by the player – Added ladder to bombsite B target – Top of bombsite B target now opaque – Added short crate stack to CT outside – Misc clip fixes – Improved vcollide on plastic bins – Fixed spot at CT spawn where weapons could be lost
OVERPASS
– Grenades will no longer fall between cracks in Bombsite B – Added backface to door in upper park (Thanks Guardian!) – More accurate collision model on tree and rocks used in upper park
TRAIN
– Fixed ladders on train cars so they no longer move the player view when attaching – Added more accurate collision for various models – Blocked visibility under some trains from far angles – Blocked grenades entering small crawlspace near popdog ladder – Raised pipes in tunnels near Ivy – Fixed a spot in T spawn where weapons could not be retrieved – Fixed some spots where C4 could get stuck – Removed that bump in T stairs. You know the one. – Fixed some surfaces playing the wrong footstep sounds – Some graphical tweaks
DUST_2
– Removed barrels outside of doors leading into B site – Blocked visibility through some props around A site – Fixed some spots where C4 could get stuck – Fixed some minor graphical bugs
OTHER
– Slight adjustments to Safehouse, Lake, and Shoots — Fixed some trees showing as unlit (SAFEHOUSE) — Removed some decals (MIKLA) — Fixed various minor bugs (SANTORINI) — Fixed an issue where players could get stuck on the inner walls of Café (SANTORINI) — Fixed a pixelwalk at mid (SANTORINI) — Various bug fixes (CRUISE) — Fixed invisible collision near mid (MIKLA) — Updated radar (MIKLA) — Moved T spawns further back (MIKLA) — Various clipping fixes (ROYAL) — Fixed pixel walk in A site (COAST) — Removed exploitable angle in B site (COAST) — Various bug and exploit fixes (TULIP) — Updated navigation mesh (SHORTDUST) — Updated with new content and lighting (SHORTTRAIN)
submitted by dedilink to GlobalOffensive

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