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Daily Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 15 September 2020


Currently Active Cyclones

Northern Atlantic

17L - Paulette

19L - Sally

20L - Teddy

21L - Vicky

Eastern Pacific

16E - Karina

Potential Development Areas

Northern Atlantic

Disturbance 1

Satellite imagery analysis over the past several hours reveals a substantial decrease in convection associated with a broad area of low pressure situated over the western Gulf of Mexico this evening. Even if convective activity picks back up again overnight or early tomorrow morning, very little development is expected as strong southerly shear and weak upper-level convergence remains in place over the region. The low is expected to drift slowly toward the south through the end of the week.
  • The potential for this system to develop within 2 days is low (10 percent).
  • The potential for this system to develop within 5 days is low (20 percent).

Disturbance 2 (Invest 98L)

A tropical wave which drifted off the coast of Guinea on Monday morning has developed a broad low-level circulation and is producing persistent, but disorganized convection. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable enough for slow to steady development over the next few days as the system drifts westward, passing the Cabo Verde Islands to the south.
  • The potential for this system to develop within 2 days is moderate (50 percent). (Up from 20 percent)
  • The potential for this system to develop within 5 days is high (70 percent). (Up from 50 percent)

Disturbance 3

A non-tropical low is currently deepening several hundred miles to the north of the Azores this evening. Over the next few days, a change in mid-level steering flow could draw the cyclone southward over warmer waters, allowing it to potentially undergo subtropical or tropical development.
  • The potential for this system to develop within 2 days is low (10 percent). (New system)
  • The potential for this system to develop within 5 days is low (20 percent). (New system)

Central Pacific

Disturbance 1

A very slow moving area of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized convection well to the southeast of Hawaii this evening. Southwesterly to westerly shear is expected to remain weak enough over the next few days that some gradual development is possible as the system moves westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north. Stronger upper-level winds late in the week may shut the door on the disturbance's potential for development.
  • The potential for this system to develop within 2 days is low (20 percent).
  • The potential for this system to develop within 5 days is low (20 percent).

Western Pacific

Disturbance 1 (Invest 90W)

A broad area of low pressure is currently moving across the northern Philippines this afternoon. While land interaction may stifle development over the next 24 hours, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for reorganization and continued development over the South China Sea on Wednesday. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for this system and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been issuing special advisories for the system.
  • The potential for this system to develop within 2 days is high
  • The potential for this system to develop within 5 days is high

Information Sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers

National Hurricane Center / Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Japan Meteorological Agency

Other Regional Agencies

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Satellite Imagery

Floater Imagery

Invest 90W

Model Guidance

Storm-specific Guidance

Invest 90W

Regional Guidance

Tropical Tidbits

submitted by Euronotus to TropicalWeather

Daily Global Outlook & Discussion: 20 September 2020


Currently Active Cyclones

Last updated: Sunday, 20 September - 07:40 UTC

Northern Atlantic

20L - Teddy

22L - Beta

23L - Wilfred

Potential Development Areas

Northern Atlantic

Disturbance 1 (Post-tropical Cyclone Paulette)

Post-tropical Cyclone Paulette is poised to make a comeback early next week as a building ridge over the northeastern Atlantic pushes the cyclone southward over the Azores. While sea-surface temperatures over this region of the Atlantic are only marginally warm, a sufficiently strong vertical thermal gradient may develop, allowing convection to form. It is becoming increasing likely that Paulette will regain tropical (or subtropical) characteristics as it meanders to the south of the Azores for the next few days.
  • The potential for this system to develop within 2 days is moderate (60 percent). (Up from 40 percent)
  • The potential for this system to develop within 5 days is moderate (60 percent). (Up from 50 percent)

Disturbance 2

A small area of low pressure developed along the trailing edge of a frontal boundary as it swept along the eastern coast of Florida late Saturday evening. Satellite imagery analysis indicates a small, but powerful burst of deep convection developing east of Cape Canaveral. These thunderstorms have been producing gale-force winds according to nearby buoys. This low is expected to slowly drift back toward land over the next few hours. Model guidance does not appear to develop the system once it moves ashore and the National Hurricane Center does not anticipate any significant development out of it.
  • The potential for this system to develop within 2 days is low (10 percent). (New disturbance)
  • The potential for this system to develop within 5 days is low (10 percent). (New disturbance)

Eastern Pacific

Disturbance 1 (Invest 93E)

A broad area of low pressure has developed along the western edge of a monsoon trough which stretches along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico this morning. Satellite imagery analysis signals some signs of gradual development as deep convection begins to consolidate around the low-level center. The disturbance is moving toward the west-northwest through a favorable environment characterized by weak northeasterly shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. The development of a tropical depression within the next couple of days is becoming increasingly likely.

Eastern Pacific

Disturbance 1 (Invest 93W)

A broad area of low pressure has developed to the south of mainland Japan this afternoon and is producing formative bands of shallow convection. The system is moving generally northward through a favorable environment characterized by weak southerly shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong poleward upper-level diffluence. The disturbance has a limited amount of time to develop into a tropical cyclone before it merges with an eastward-moving frontal system and transitions into a subtropical storm.
  • The potential for this system to develop within 2 days is moderate.

Information Sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers

National Hurricane Center / Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Japan Meteorological Agency

Other Regional Agencies

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Satellite Imagery

Floater Imagery

Paulette

Invest 93E

Invest 93W

Model Guidance

Storm-specific Guidance

Paulette

Invest 93E

Invest 93W

Regional Guidance

Tropical Tidbits

submitted by Euronotus to TropicalWeather

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